James Spann forecasts possible storms for southwest Alabama from Alabama NewsCenter on Vimeo.
QUIET MORNING: Alabama is rain-free this morning; drier air has dropped into the northern counties, where temperatures have fallen into the mid 60s in many places. Most of the showers and storms that form this afternoon will be over the southern part of the state, where deep moisture lingers. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for southwest Alabama, where the heavier storms could produce strong winds.
North Alabama will be generally dry, although showers could move in tonight ahead of a disturbance moving down the northwest flow aloft. The high today will be close to 90 degrees; the average high for Birmingham on Aug. 16 is 91.
REST OF THE WEEK: Moisture levels rise, and we will have some risk of showers and storms daily Wednesday through Friday. It won’t rain everywhere each day, but odds of any one spot seeing rain over the three-day period at least one time is 70-80%. Most, but not all, of the showers and storms will come from around noon to midnight, and highs will drop into the mid 80s because of clouds and showers.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Look for a mix of sun and clouds Saturday and Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and evening. Highs will remain below average, generally in the upper 80s. The weekend won’t be a washout, but a few passing showers are a decent possibility.
NEXT WEEK: It sure looks like highs will remain below 90 most days next week; warm, humid weather continues with the risk of showers and storms daily.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: The high school football season kicks off Friday night for most schools; the weather will be warm and humid, and random storms will be around during the evening. There’s no way of knowing in advance the exact locations, but a few games could experience a lightning delay. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s at kickoff, falling into the upper 70s by the second half.
TROPICS: A tropical wave over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America during the next few days and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
The National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance of development over the next five days.
The rest of the Atlantic basin is very quiet.
ON THIS DATE IN 1992: A tropical wave in the Atlantic grew into a tropical depression; the next day it would become Tropical Storm Andrew. Further development was slow, as the west-northwestward-moving Andrew encountered an unfavorable upper-level trough. Indeed, the storm almost dissipated on Aug. 20 due to vertical wind shear. By Aug. 21, Andrew was midway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and turning westward into a more favorable environment. Rapid strengthening occurred, with Andrew reaching hurricane strength on Aug. 22 and Category 4 status on Aug. 23. It would go on to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record in the U.S., striking south Florida Aug. 24 and Louisiana Aug. 26.
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