James Spann: A mostly dry Alabama weekend ahead; eyes on the tropics
RADAR CHECK: Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are across Alabama this afternoon. A few heavier storms are across the southern quarter of the state… otherwise we have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures mostly in the 78-84 degree range. Isolated showers end tonight; lows will be in the 60s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Most of the weekend will be dry, although a few small, isolated showers are possible tomorrow afternoon over the eastern counties. Highs will be in the 80s, lows mostly in the 60s. A few of the cooler spots over North Alabama could see upper 50s.
The weather will stay calm and mostly dry next week, although there could be a day or two with isolated showers. Highs will stay in the 80s … See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.
TROPICS: Hurricane Humberto, with winds of 90 mph, is about 450 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. It is moving to the northwest at only 5 mph. Humberto will likely become a major hurricane over the weekend, but it is no threat to land. It will pass between Bermuda and the U.S. East Coast before heading out into the North Atlantic.
To the west of Humberto, satellite data and surface observations indicate that a low pressure system appears to be forming near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms and gusty winds. Gradual development of this system is expected, and it will likely become a tropical depression during the next day or so while it moves northwestward or northward across the central and northwestern Bahamas.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba, and are likely to spread across the remainder of the Bahamas over the weekend. Interests in all of these areas should monitor the progress of the system.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the Bahamas and advisories on a potential tropical cyclone could be issued as early as later today. While there remains considerable uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Some model ensemble members show a landfall on the South Carolina coast next week, while other members suggest the system will turn to the east, not reaching the coast. Until the system gets a well-defined center and we get dropsonde data from hurricane hunter aircraft, there is little confidence in the track/intensity forecast.
No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for at least the next 7-10 days.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn travels to College Station to take on Texas A&M tomorrow (2:30 p.m. kickoff) … the sky will be sunny with temperatures in the upper 80s during the first half, dropping back into the mid 80s by the final whistle.
Alabama will play Georgia in Athens tomorrow night (6:30 p.m. kickoff) … the sky will be mostly cloudy, and a passing shower can’t be ruled out, mainly during the first half. Temperatures will fall through the 70s during the game.
ON THIS DATE IN 2024: Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region as a powerful Category 4 storm with winds of 140 mph. The storm caused catastrophic rainfall-triggered flooding, particularly in western North Carolina, East Tennessee and southwestern Virginia, and spawned numerous tornadoes. Helene also inundated Tampa Bay, breaking storm surge records throughout the area. The hurricane had a high death toll, causing 252 deaths and inflicting an estimated total of $78.7 billion in damage, making it the fifth-costliest Atlantic hurricane on record adjusted for inflation.
Areas in the Black Mountains region in the western part of North Carolina were particularly devastated. Residents of Swannanoa also reported that no search and rescue operations had reached their location as of September 29, leaving several residents who had not prepared for the degree of flooding without food or drinkable water. A curfew was issued for Asheville due to damage which occurred inside the city. The storm and its aftermath caused 1,400 landslides and damaged over 160 water and sewer systems, at least 6,000 miles of roads, more than 1,000 bridges and culverts and an estimated 126,000 homes.
For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.