Bill Murray: Alabama will enjoy a mostly sunny, warm weekend
ALABAMA YESTERDAY
High pressure remained firmly in control across Alabama on Friday, keeping skies mostly sunny and the pattern bone dry from the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast. Afternoon highs climbed into the 70s statewide, with highs ranging from 73F at Cullman to 78F at Chatom, Monroeville and Thomasville. No measurable rain was reported anywhere in the state as the ongoing drought held steady.
ALABAMA THIS MORNING
It’s another cool, pleasant November start across Alabama. Early morning readings are generally in the lower 50s west of I-65 and south of I-85, with 40s over East Central sections. Skies are clear to mostly clear with just a few patches of shallow fog near the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama and some low spots near rivers. Any fog will burn off quickly after sunrise, setting the stage for a warm, bright Saturday.
A shallow, moisture-rich air mass settled over southwest Alabama and the coastal counties Friday night, setting the stage for widespread fog development into early Saturday. With skies clear, winds going calm and dewpoints running high near the coast, temperatures were able to fall quickly toward saturation — allowing fog to form and thicken through the pre-dawn hours. Light northwesterly flow aloft kept drier air from mixing down, and a subtle marine layer over Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound enhanced cooling and moisture pooling near the surface. As a result, dense fog is expected to become most widespread along and south of U.S. 84, including coastal communities, Mobile Bay and adjacent inlets. Visibility may fall to a quarter-mile or less at times before improving two to three hours after sunrise.
ALABAMA 7 DAY FORECAST
A warming trend continues through the weekend with dry weather holding statewide today. A weak front slides through on Sunday with more clouds and a few sprinkles mainly over north and east Alabama, but it won’t be a big rain producer. Early next week stays warm for November with only small shower chances north, and then a more unsettled pattern develops by mid to late week as Gulf moisture returns and a western U.S. system edges closer.
SUNNY AND WARM TODAY
High pressure centered to our east and ridging aloft to our west keep Alabama locked into another beautiful fall day. Sunshine will be dominant with just a few fair-weather clouds. Highs today will be mainly in the 70s. Humidity remains on the low side, and winds will be light. Despite the pleasant feel, very dry soils and vegetation mean we still need to be cautious with any outdoor burning.
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG SOUTH
Skies stay mostly clear tonight with light winds. That will allow another cool night, though temperatures continue a slow upward trend. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s again. Patchy late-night and early-morning fog is possible again near the coast, the Florida Panhandle and parts of southeast Alabama, but it should clear quickly after sunrise.
WEAK FRONT BRUSHES THE STATE SUNDAY
A weak cold front will slide southeast across Alabama on Sunday. It won’t have much moisture to work with, but it will bring more clouds and the chance for a few sprinkles here and there, mainly across north and east Alabama and especially the Tennessee Valley and northeast counties. Most locations will stay dry or see only a trace. Sunday highs will be in the 70s, with a few readings near 80 over South Alabama. Behind the front, slightly cooler and drier air filters in Sunday night with lows dropping into the low and mid 40s north and upper 40s to near 50 central and south.
EARLY WEEK WARMTH WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS NORTH
By Monday and Tuesday, a broad ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley while a front stalls to our south and then begins to lift back north as a warm front. There could be a few showers over South and Southwest Alabama early Monday. Moisture starts to creep back into north Alabama, but the pattern remains largely dry over the northern part of the state. Highs will be in the 60s North, 70s Central and South Monday. Tuesday highs will be back in the 70s. Lows will be in the 50s Monday night.
MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
From Wednesday into Friday, an amplified western U.S. trough and a strengthening southern stream pattern will help pull richer Gulf moisture back into the Deep South. By the end of the week, Alabama will be firmly in the warm sector ahead of a cold front advancing slowly east of the Mississippi River Valley.
Details are still somewhat uncertain, but the most likely scenario for our state:
…Wednesday: Dry and mild. Any rain should stay to our north. We might be flirting 80 degrees Wednesday afternoon in some spots.
…Thursday: Still dry. Highs in the 70s.
…Friday: Increasing clouds and more widespread showers, especially across the northwestern third of the state where a corridor of heavier rain may set up. Highs likely trend back into the upper 60s North to mid 70s Southwest, depending on clouds and rain coverage. Rainfall amounts should average around one half inch.
DROUGHT HOLDS FIRM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
The overall drought picture across Alabama changed little this week, and the dry forecast through Sunday means no immediate relief. About 17% of the state remains out of drought, while a broad swath of central and southern Alabama is locked in moderate to severe drought, with a small pocket of extreme drought in the West Central portion of the state.
Across the broader Southeast U.S., the lack of rain continues to take a toll. Southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle remain hot spots for worsening drought and fuels continue to dry across much of the region. With several more warm, mostly dry days ahead for Alabama, we expect fire danger and water stress to gradually increase until the midweek system arrives.
RECORDS FALL ACROSS THE SOONER STATE
Record high temperatures were observed across Oklahoma on Friday, including 82 at Oklahoma City (previous record 80), Lawton with 86 (previous record 83), and just across the Red River, Wichita Falls broke their old record of 86 with a high of 88 degrees.
NATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
The peak of a significant early-season storm is unfolding today across Southern California. A slow-moving upper low and a focused plume of Pacific moisture are combining to produce periods of heavy rain, gusty winds and high-elevation snow. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are likely across coastal and valley areas, with localized amounts over 6 inches along the Transverse Ranges.
Flash flooding, urban flooding and debris flows are a concern, especially in and below burn scar areas from Santa Barbara to Los Angeles. Travel will be difficult at times, and rockslides or mudslides are possible in canyon roads and mountain passes. The heavy rain gradually shifts inland and weakens late tonight into Sunday.
ANOTHER STORM AIMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SUNDAY
As the Southern California system lifts inland and weakens on Sunday, another upper low dives south from the Pacific Northwest into northern California. This follow-up storm will drag a cold front onshore, spreading another round of rain into central and northern California and parts of southwest Oregon.
Rainfall totals will not be as extreme as today’s Southern California event, but the combination of fresh moisture and recent heavy rains will support a renewed risk for localized flash flooding, especially in steep terrain and urban areas.
RECORD WARMTH AND FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE PLAINS
A broad warm ridge centered over the Plains is driving temperatures 20–30 degrees above normal from Texas into the central Plains today. Many locations are within a degree or two of daily record highs, and a few spots are likely to tie or break long-standing records this afternoon.
Sample record-challenging highs today include:
…Lubbock and Abilene, Texas, flirting with the upper 80s
…Oklahoma City and Tulsa in the low to mid 80s
…Springfield, Missouri and Fort Smith, Arkansas in the upper 70s to low 80s
Low humidity and gusty winds across parts of Nebraska, South Dakota and nearby states are driving an elevated to critical fire weather risk. Any fires that start could spread quickly in these dry, windy conditions.
WEEKEND SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
The eastern U.S. remains fairly quiet today with seasonable to slightly above-normal temperatures. By tonight and Sunday, the same front responsible for the Plains warmth and wind will push east, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms from the Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
A narrow corridor from the Upper Ohio Valley into western Pennsylvania and West Virginia may see a broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms this evening. Gusty winds are possible with stronger cells, but severe weather should remain limited. Farther northeast, some interior locations may see a mix of rain and wet snow late Sunday as colder air filters in behind the front.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
Today’s severe thunderstorm risk is low nationally, but the following area will have storms today:
…Upper Ohio Valley: A few showers and thunderstorms this evening may produce gusty winds from parts of Ohio and western Pennsylvania into West Virginia as a cold front moves through. Widespread severe weather is not expected.
…Coastal Southern California: Low-topped showers and isolated thunderstorms within the heavy rain shield could briefly enhance winds, especially over higher elevations and coastal headlands, but the main concern remains flooding rather than damaging winds or large hail.
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET
The Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico remain quiet this morning. The National Hurricane Center does not anticipate any tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. With the season winding down and a stable pattern in place, the tropics are letting the mainland weather steal the show.
NICE WEEK AT THE BEACH
It will be a fantastic November weekend along the Alabama and Northwest Florida beaches, with plenty of sunshine, gentle surf and mild temperatures running in the lower to mid 70s both Saturday and Sunday. Surf heights remain around 1 foot for most locations, increasing to 1–2 feet at times on Sunday as westerly winds pick up behind a weak front. The rip current risk stays low for Alabama beaches and moderate for the Florida Panhandle, where onshore flow becomes better defined Sunday — so swimmers should still use caution near piers, jetties, and sandbars. Morning hours may bring patches of dense fog, especially along the Alabama coast, Mobile Bay and the Mississippi Sound, but conditions clear quickly with bright, comfortable afternoons and cool, pleasant evenings. Water temperatures are running in the mid to upper 60s, making for refreshing dips and ideal weather for beach walks, fishing and late-season sun.
FOOTBALL FORECAST
ALABAMA VS OKLAHOMA (SATURDAY, 2:30 PM — BRYANT-DENNY STADIUM)
Tailgaters will enjoy a mild late morning with sunshine and temperatures already climbing through the upper 60s. By kickoff, expect partly to mostly sunny skies with readings in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will ease back into the upper 60s by the 4th quarter with dry weather holding through the game.
UAB VS NORTH TEXAS (SATURDAY, 1:00 PM — PROTECTIVE STADIUM)
Late-morning tailgating in downtown Birmingham will be very pleasant with sunshine and temps in the mid to upper 60s. Kickoff brings dry, mild weather with temperatures between 70 and 74 degrees. Expect a slow slip into the upper 60s later in the afternoon, with no rain to interrupt the action.
TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
November 15, 1989: The Huntsville Tornado
On November 15, 1989, a violent F4 tornado struck the city of Huntsville during the height of afternoon rush hour. The half-mile-wide tornado carved an 18-mile path through the southern part of the city, cutting across business districts and neighborhoods. Twenty-one people were killed and 463 were injured, with total damage near $100 million. The most severe destruction occurred near Airport Road and Memorial Parkway, where shopping centers, offices, and homes were leveled. In all, 259 homes and 80 businesses were destroyed, along with several schools and churches. The event remains one of Alabama’s most destructive urban tornadoes, etched in memory for the lives lost and the community’s remarkable recovery.
For more weather news and information from Bill Murray and the rest of the James Spann team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.