Bill Murray: Alabama will see rain overnight into Sunday; work week starts cool and dry

ALABAMA THIS MORNING

Clear and quiet conditions cover much of Alabama early this morning, with just a few patches of fog forming in low-lying valleys. Temperatures are mild — mid-60s across the north, upper 60s to near 70 in central areas, and lower to mid-70s down south and along the coast. Skies are mainly clear statewide, with a few clouds near the Gulf. Expect another warm day ahead, with sunshine returning for most and only isolated afternoon clouds or a stray shower possible.

DANCING WITH THE STATS

SHELBY COUNTY SIZZLES TO 90°

Thursday brought another dose of late-season heat across Central Alabama, as Shelby County Airport climbed to a new record high and broke the old record of 85° set in 2011.

ACROSS THE NATION

SEVERE STORMS TARGET MID-SOUTH
A developing storm system will bring a round of severe thunderstorms today into tonight across the ArkLaTex, Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible from eastern Texas through Arkansas and into western Tennessee and Kentucky as the storms organize into clusters and lines.

HEAVY RAIN IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
Thunderstorms producing high rainfall rates may cause localized flash flooding across southern Missouri this afternoon and evening. While the fast movement of the front limits widespread flooding, a few trailing storms could drop 2 to 3 inches of rain in spots before pushing east overnight.

STORMS SWEEP EAST ON SUNDAY
By Sunday and Sunday night, the cold front will sweep from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast, triggering another round of strong to severe thunderstorms. The strongest storms may reach parts of the Deep South and the Atlantic Seaboard before the front exits into the Atlantic Monday morning.

TURNING COLDER OUT WEST
A separate system is bringing much colder, unsettled weather to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Rain will spread across the coastal valleys today with mountain snow and gusty winds arriving tonight into Sunday, signaling the first widespread taste of autumn chill in the region.

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

SLIGHT RISK OVER THE MID-SOUTH
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today and tonight from the ArkLaTex region through the Ozarks and into parts of the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley. The main hazards will be damaging winds, hail and a few tornadoes, with the highest risk during the afternoon and evening as storms organize and move east. A low-end tornado potential of around 2 percent extends into areas near and north of the central Gulf Coast overnight.

ALABAMA WEATHER FORECAST

A warm Saturday across Alabama gives way to an approaching storm system tonight, bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms into the state before sunrise Sunday. Cooler, drier air arrives early next week as fall finally makes a return.

SUNNY TODAY, WARM BREEZE BUILDING
Much of Alabama enjoys another dry and mild day with highs climbing into the low to mid-80s north, mid to upper 80s central, and near 90 south. Skies stay mostly sunny with a few clouds increasing late. Winds become gusty from the south at 15 to 25 mph by afternoon, signaling the change on the way.

STORMS ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
A fast-moving cold front will push a squall line into western Alabama around midnight, then sweep east before sunrise. Damaging winds will be the main concern, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially across west-central Alabama. Overnight lows stay mild — upper 60s north to low 70s south.

SHOWERS EXIT SUNDAY MORNING
By early Sunday, the line of storms will move across central and southern Alabama, bringing a period of heavy rain and gusty winds before clearing quickly by midday. Skies turn breezy and cooler behind the front with afternoon highs in the 70s north to near 80 south. The risk of severe storms ends by mid-morning.

COOLER AIR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
A dry, crisp pattern takes hold early in the week. Morning lows dip into the 40s across much of the state, with a few upper 30s in sheltered valleys north of Birmingham. Highs will range from the upper 60s north to mid-70s south. Another dry front Tuesday reinforces the cool air with sunny skies continuing.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK
High pressure dominates through midweek with chilly mornings and pleasant afternoons. Lows will remain in the upper 30s to mid-40s with highs in the 70s statewide. Patchy frost may form in northern valleys by Wednesday or Thursday morning, signaling the state’s first taste of true fall air.

FOOTBALL FORECAST

MEMPHIS AT UAB (SATURDAY, 3 p.m.)
Tailgate weather looks ideal under partly sunny skies with temperatures rising into the mid-80s by midday. At kickoff, expect 84 degrees with a light south wind and increasing clouds late in the game as showers approach from the west. Temperatures ease into the upper 70s by the fourth quarter, with only a slim chance of rain before the final whistle.

TENNESSEE AT ALABAMA (SATURDAY, 6:30 p.m.)
Tuscaloosa fans will enjoy a warm, breezy evening for this rivalry matchup. Tailgaters during the afternoon can expect mid-80s with a gusty south breeze. Kickoff temperatures near 80 drop into the low 70s by game’s end. Storms from the west should hold off until after midnight, keeping the game itself dry.

MISSOURI AT AUBURN (SATURDAY, 6:45 p.m.)
The Plains will be warm and partly cloudy at kickoff with temperatures near 80 and light southerly winds. Through the game, readings slip into the lower 70s. Rain holds off until after midnight, so fans should enjoy a pleasant night with no weather issues during play.

YELLAWOOD 500 RACE WEEKEND

A warm, sunny Saturday greets fans at Talladega Superspeedway, with highs in the low to mid-80s and ideal racing conditions through the afternoon. Storms are expected to arrive late tonight and continue into early Sunday morning before clearing out. By race time Sunday, skies turn mostly sunny again with comfortable highs near 78 and a light northwest breeze — perfect weather for the green flag and the final laps.

TROPICAL WEATHER

TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
A broad tropical wave about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands is moving west near 20 mph, producing widespread showers and storms. Gradual development is possible, with low odds — 0% in 48 hours and 30% over seven days. It will bring rain and gusty winds to the islands late this weekend before moving into the Caribbean.

LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
A non-tropical low well off the Northeast U.S. coast may briefly gain subtropical traits this weekend before heading into cooler waters. Development chances are low at 10%.

No tropical threats exist for the U.S. East Coast or Gulf Coast.

BEACH FORECAST

SUNNY SATURDAY ALONG THE COAST
It’s a bright, breezy day along Alabama’s beaches, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s. Surf runs 2 to 3 feet, and the Gulf water temperature is in the upper 70s — perfect for a quick dip or a stroll in the sand. A southeast breeze keeps things pleasant, though swimmers should note a High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is also in effect offshore tonight as seas build to 3 to 5 feet.

TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY

October 18, 1990: East Coast Tornado Outbreak
On October 18, 1990, an unusual and destructive tornado outbreak struck the eastern United States, producing 16 tornadoes from North Carolina to New England. Fueled by a strong cold front meeting warm, moist Atlantic air, the storms generated six tornadoes rated F2 or stronger, including four that reached F3 intensity. Near King William, Virginia, an F3 tornado killed a 73-year-old man when a barn collapsed in the Mount Olive community. Another F3 struck Montgomery Township, New Jersey, injuring eight, while an F2 heavily damaged an apartment complex in Reisterstown, Maryland, injuring 59. In all, 76 people were hurt, one person was killed, and widespread property damage underscored the rare and far-reaching nature of this East Coast outbreak.

WEATHERBRAINS

Episode 1031 airs Monday, October 20, featuring Jen Carfagno, co-host of AMHQ on The Weather Channel. Join us live at 7 p.m. on our YouTube channel.

For more weather news and information from Bill Murray and the rest of the James Spann team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.