Bill Murray: Sunny Saturday for Alabama; Gulf Coast seeing rough surf

ALABAMA THIS MORNING 

A mild and quiet start to the weekend across most of Alabama, with clear skies in the north and increasing clouds southward. Temperatures sit in the upper 50s and low 60s inland, rising to the upper 60s near the coast. Easterly winds are strongest along the southwest and coastal counties, where gusts near 20 mph continue. The day ahead will stay warm and mostly dry, with highs reaching the 80s statewide.

SPANN SKYWATCHERS

Saturday dawned mild and mostly clear across Alabama, with Skywatchers checking in from cool valleys to warmer central spots.

DANCING WITH THE STATS

RAPID CITY SIZZLES TO 96°

A surge of unseasonable warmth engulfed the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday, sending October temperatures soaring into summer territory. Rapid City, South Dakota, took top honors with a scorching 96°, smashing its previous record from 1963 by six degrees. Several other towns across the Dakotas and Nebraska joined in the autumn heatwave, each breaking long-standing records that dated as far back as the early 1900s.

Rapid City, SD — 96° (old record 90° in 1963)
East Rapid City, SD — 93° (old record 91° in 1922)
Sisseton, SD — 91° (old record 90° in 1938)
Sioux Falls, SD — 91° (old record 89° in 1897)
Alliance, NE — 91° (old record 90° in 1967)

 NATIONAL OUTLOOK

ROCKIES AND PLAINS STORMS TODAY
A strong upper low moving across the Intermountain West will trigger scattered storms from the central Rockies into the northern Plains this afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce gusty winds and marginally severe hail, especially across Wyoming, South Dakota and North Dakota. Locally heavy rain is also possible across the Great Basin and into the northern Rockies.

AUTUMN HEAT HOLDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
Record-breaking warmth continues across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s stretching from Minnesota to Michigan. Minneapolis could hit the low 90s — roughly 25 degrees above normal — before a front slides through late Sunday to bring modest cooling.

COOLING AND MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST
Behind the front, much cooler air filters into the West, dropping daytime highs 10 to 20 degrees below average. Rain spreads through the northern Rockies, while mountain snow accumulates in Montana and Wyoming, where Winter Storm Warnings are posted.

RAIN AND FLOOD RISK ALONG THE GULF AND FLORIDA COASTS
A weak disturbance and onshore flow will fuel heavy showers along Florida’s east coast and the central Gulf Coast through the weekend. Downpours could trigger isolated flash flooding, and strong onshore winds may bring rip currents and rough surf to coastal areas.

NATIONAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE

The nation’s high on Friday was 103° at both Gila Bend, Arizona, and 3 miles east-southeast of Casa Grande, Arizona. The lowest temperature was 23° at Angel Fire, New Mexico.

DROUGHT 

DRYNESS PERSISTS NATIONWIDE

This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor shows a mixed picture across the country. Rains eased drought in parts of the Midwest, Northeast and Southwest, but dryness deepened in the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and northern Montana. September heat aggravated conditions, with many areas running 6–10° above normal.

DROUGHT EXPANDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST

Hot, mostly dry weather led to rapid drying across central and southern Alabama and Georgia. Scattered rains in Virginia, the Carolinas and northern Alabama and Georgia brought localized relief, but deficits remain large. Agriculture, including Georgia’s peanut crop, continues to suffer.

ALABAMA SEES FIRST EXTREME DROUGHT AREA

In Alabama, 95% of the state is experiencing drought or abnormal dryness. Abnormally dry (D0) covers 43.6%, moderate drought (D1) is at 37.7% and severe drought (D2) climbed to 12.3% from 7.9% last week. For the first time this season, extreme drought (D3) has emerged, affecting 1.26% of the state — centered in Greene County and parts of Sumter and Marengo Counties.

STATEWIDE FIRE DANGER ADVISORY ISSUED

With worsening drought and above-normal heat, the Alabama Forestry Commission issued a statewide Fire Danger Advisory. Outdoor burning is discouraged until substantial rainfall arrives. Permits remain required for prescribed burns, and officials urge caution with equipment, debris piles and other potential ignition sources as wildfire risk grows.

ALABAMA FORECAST

A warm and mostly quiet start to the October weekend is unfolding across Alabama, with sunshine dominating much of the state today. Sunday will mark a subtle shift as Gulf moisture creeps northward, bringing a few spotty showers — mainly across the southern half of the state.

SUNNY AND SEASONABLE TODAY
High pressure keeps skies mostly clear and temperatures comfortably warm across Alabama. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s statewide, with a gentle easterly breeze at times. Along the coast, moderate to strong easterly winds are producing rough surf and a high rip current risk — more details can be found in today’s full Beach Forecast section of the newsletter. While most of the state stays dry, a few isolated showers may develop this afternoon in far southeast Alabama near the Florida line.

MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT
Clear skies and light winds will lead to another pleasant evening. Lows will dip into the upper 50s in the north and lower 60s elsewhere, with patchy fog possible near rivers or valleys by sunrise.

SUNDAY: MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH ALABAMA
A weak disturbance over the Gulf will send deeper moisture northward, bringing increasing clouds and a few scattered showers to central and south Alabama. The day won’t be a washout, but some coastal and inland areas could see brief downpours or rumbles of thunder. Temperatures stay warm, topping out in the low to mid 80s.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WARM AND PARTLY UNSETTLED
Southerly flow keeps humidity levels up early in the week, with spotty afternoon showers possible statewide — most likely across western and central counties. A weak front drifts southward by midweek, trimming highs slightly to the low 80s and keeping overnight lows mild in the 60s.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: DRYING TREND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
Cooler, drier air settles in late week behind the front. Sunshine returns with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 and pleasantly crisp mornings in the mid-50s north to lower 60s south.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK
The broader pattern favors above-normal warmth and limited rainfall through mid-October. Drought conditions will likely persist, and outdoor burning remains discouraged due to dry fuels and light rainfall totals statewide.

FOOTBALL 

UAB VS. ARMY (SATURDAY, 11 a.m.)
Tailgaters will enjoy a bright, comfortable morning with temperatures climbing quickly through the 70s. At kickoff, expect mostly sunny skies and readings in the low to mid 80s, edging toward the upper 80s by game’s end. Light easterly breezes will add a hint of fall air but no threat of rain for the Blazer faithful.

ALABAMA VS. VANDERBILT (SATURDAY, 2:30 p.m.)
Tuscaloosa will see classic early-October warmth with mostly sunny skies from morning tailgates through the final whistle. Kickoff temperatures hover in the mid 80s, easing back toward 80 degrees by sunset. Fans can expect light winds and dry air — perfect football weather with no rain to spoil the day.

TROY VS. SOUTH ALABAMA (SATURDAY, 6 p.m.)
Tailgate weather along the Gulf Coast will be warm and breezy, with highs in the mid 80s during the afternoon. At kickoff, skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures near 82°. A few showers or a thunderstorm may develop late in the evening, especially toward the end of the game as Gulf moisture deepens. Temperatures fall comfortably into the 70s by the second half, with an increasing breeze from the east.

TROPICS 

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
Farther east, a tropical wave between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing widespread showers and storms. Gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could form by mid- to late week as the system moves west across the central Atlantic toward the Leeward Islands.

WEAK GULF LOW DRIFTS TOWARD TEXAS
A weak area of low pressure in the north-central Gulf of Mexico is producing scattered showers and storms off the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. The system will move slowly northwest through the weekend, reaching the Texas coast by Monday. Strong upper-level winds will prevent it from developing, but rain and gusty winds may affect parts of the northern Gulf Coast.

DISTURBANCE NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA
Another weak low near the northwestern Bahamas continues to generate disorganized showers and storms while drifting toward southern Florida. Development is not expected, but heavy rainfall could cause localized flash flooding along Florida’s east coast and across the northwestern Bahamas through the weekend.

BEACH

Hazardous conditions continue along the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this weekend. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Sunday with waves of 4 to 6 feet, and a High Rip Current Risk runs through Monday afternoon. East winds near 20 mph are keeping the surf zone dangerous for all swimmers. Skies will be mostly cloudy with a few showers or a thunderstorm possible, highs in the lower 80s, and water temperatures in the upper 70s.

TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY 

October 4, 1964: Hurricane Hilda in Alabama

On this day, the remnants of Hurricane Hilda crossed Alabama, producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and flooding. An F1 tornado struck northeast of Evergreen, while another F1 cut through Georgiana, damaging homes and a fertilizer plant. That afternoon, an F2 tornado hit Barbour County, destroying a home, injuring three people, and damaging parts of Eufaula including a hospital and plant. Beyond the tornadoes, winds up to 80 mph battered Mobile and Baldwin counties, toppling trees and power lines, destroying piers along the Eastern Shore, and blowing out windows. Heavy rain and high tides added flooding to an already destructive day.

For more weather news and information from Bill Murray and the rest of the James Spann team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.