Bill Murray: Warm Alabama weekend before a cooler Thanksgiving
Friday started with widespread dense fog across much of Alabama, with visibilities dropping below a quarter mile before gradually improving by mid-morning. Through the afternoon, several mid-level disturbances produced scattered showers and a few thunderstorms — most numerous from southeast Mississippi into southwest and central Alabama — while northern counties stayed mostly cloudy with limited instability. Temperatures were held down in the north under thicker cloud cover, while warm advection kept conditions milder and more humid farther south. Showers tapered by evening, with low clouds redeveloping.
METEOROLOGICAL SETUP
We are heading into the last full weekend before Thanksgiving with Alabama sitting squarely in a warm, moist southwest flow aloft, on the southern side of a broad U.S. jet stream pattern that keeps true Arctic air locked up to our north. The storm track is active out West with soaking rains in California and the Desert Southwest, while a series of shortwave troughs ripples across the Plains and East, sending one front through our state this weekend and another, stronger system toward us around Tuesday–Wednesday before a cooler, drier high settles in for Thanksgiving.
SATURDAY WEATHER
Saturday brings improving conditions statewide as the last impulse from Friday’s system exits early in the morning. Any lingering light showers or drizzle in central and northern Alabama should end quickly, leaving most of the state partly to mostly sunny by midday. Temperatures will run unseasonably warm for late November, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s across much of Alabama and even low 80s in the southern counties and coastal areas ahead of a weak front. A few high temperature records will be in jeopardy (see the graphic above). Humidity drops behind the boundary later in the day as slightly drier air filters in, setting up a clear and cooler Saturday night with lows generally in the 40s north and central, and low 50s toward the Gulf Coast.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
Behind Saturday’s weak front, Sunday looks like a classic late-November “bonus day” across Alabama with plenty of sunshine, light north to northeast breezes and comfortable temperatures. Look for morning lows in the low to mid 40s across North Alabama, upper 40s to near 50 in the central counties and lower 50s closer to the Coast, then afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s to near 70 in the Tennessee Valley, around 70 in central counties and low to mid 70s in the Wiregrass and coastal counties. Sunday night will be clear and cool statewide with lows generally in the low to mid 40s north and central, upper 40s to near 50 in the south and low 50s hugging the beaches.
EARLY WEEK OUTLOOK
Monday stays quiet and mild with sunshine filtered at times by high clouds and highs running a few degrees above normal: upper 60s to lower 70s north, low to mid 70s central, and mid 70s south. By Monday night and especially Tuesday into Tuesday night, a stronger storm system lifting out of the Southern Plains will drag a front toward Alabama, bringing a good chance of showers and a few thunderstorms back to the state; guidance suggests the bulk of the rain arrives Tuesday into early Wednesday. Instability looks low and so does any potential for severe weather. Rain amounts look modest but welcome, around one half to one inch, with cooler, drier air filtering in from northwest to southeast behind the front late Wednesday.
THANKSGIVING AND THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
If current trends hold, we should get Tuesday’s/Wednesday’s rainmaker out of here in time for a cool, quiet Thanksgiving across Alabama with plenty of sun and a crisp feel in the air. Highs on Thursday look to top out in the upper 50s to near 60 in North Alabama and lower to mid 60s farther south, with morning lows dipping into the 30s in many inland spots and low 40s closer to the coast. Friday into next weekend, a broad Canadian high is expected to dominate the eastern half of the country, keeping our weather seasonably cool and dry with highs mostly in the 50s and 60s and chilly nights in the 30s and 40s — great for Iron Bowl weekend travel and post-holiday shopping.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL FORECAST
The biggest problems on Wednesday will likely come at Atlanta, Charlotte and the Washington Airports, where rain, low clouds, and ceilings will cause delays. Look for morning delays at Chicago and Houston airports. Detroit could have problems as well.
VOODOO TERRITORY
Looking out into week two, ensemble guidance continues to advertise a broad trough over eastern North America with a sprawling surface high parked somewhere from the Plains to the Deep South, suggesting a cooler-than-average pattern for much of the eastern U.S. and a generally quiet setup for Alabama. There are hints that the Pacific jet will remain active, sending occasional systems into the West and eventually the Plains, but whether any of those can phase with colder air and send another meaningful front our way late in the period remains uncertain. For now, the most likely outcome beyond Thanksgiving weekend is a run of dry, pleasantly cool days and cold nights with any major pattern shifts waiting until early December.
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
The Storm Prediction Center does not have any organized severe weather areas outlined for today, though isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Southwest into the southern Plains and Southeast. For Alabama, any storms that manage to develop Saturday or Saturday night should be widely scattered and weak, with only a very low chance of a brief gusty wind; the more robust thunder chances wait until the stronger system approaches Tuesday into Tuesday night.
FOOTBALL WEATHER
Auburn hosts Mercer today (1 p.m. kickoff) … the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s during the first half, falling into the upper 60s by the final whistle. There is a chance of a passing shower during the pregame and during the game, so keep the rain gear handy just in case.
Alabama will host Eastern Illinois in Tuscaloosa (1 p.m. kickoff) … the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures falling from the mid 70s in the first half to near 70 by the fourth quarter. Rain should not be a problem.
UAB hosts South Florida at Protective Stadium (2 p.m. kickoff) … dry and mild with temperatures in the mid 70s at kickoff, falling into the 60s by the final whistle.
EARLY IRON BOWL FORECAST: The biggest game of the year in Alabama is in Auburn this year (Saturday November 29 at 6:30 p.m.) … on the positive side models are trending warmer, now suggesting temperatures could be in the 50s and 40s during the game (as opposed to 30s we saw in runs earlier this week). And, for now, the weather looks dry although clouds will be increasing.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
We remain in hurricane season through November 30, but the late-season tropics are quiet and there are no organized systems expected to develop or threaten in the Atlantic Basin during the next two weeks.
BEACH FORECAST FOR ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
If you’re heading to the beautiful beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida, expect a warm, mostly sunny Saturday with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. Water temperatures are hovering around 70–72 degrees from Dauphin Island to Orange Beach and eastward to Destin, Panama City Beach and St. George Island. Surf heights run 1 to 2 feet, with a moderate rip current risk along most Alabama and western Florida Panhandle beaches and a high risk at some of the Panama City and Big Bend beaches. Use caution and always obey local beach flag warnings.
WEATHERBRAINS
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THIS DAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
On this date in 1874: A destructive late-autumn tornado outbreak swept across central and northern Alabama, producing multiple long-tracked tornadoes that carved deep scars through Colbert, Lauderdale, Hale, Greene and Shelby counties. The deadliest storm was an immense F4 monster that tore a 25-mile path across Colbert and Lauderdale counties, reaching 800 yards wide and destroying roughly one-third of Tuscumbia, including large homes, a railroad bridge and entire blocks of neighborhoods; 14 people were killed and at least 30 injured. Other tornadoes inflicted major damage from Moundville to Eutaw — where the Mesopotamia Female Seminary was struck — and a midnight F3 in Shelby County devastated Montevallo and Shelby Springs, damaging or destroying 35 buildings and killing two. Long before organized warning systems, communities had little chance to react and the November 22, 1874 outbreak stands as one of Alabama’s most consequential nineteenth-century severe weather events.
For more weather news and information from Bill Murray and the rest of the James Spann team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.