Drew McCombs: Alabama dry in the north, wet in the south; Labor Day sees lower rain chances

MORNING NOTES

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are moving across southern Alabama this morning, with heavier rain noted between Troy and Enterprise and the most intense rain just offshore. Farther north, it’s a quieter start to the day — skies are calmer, and some spots are still enjoying refreshing 50s to begin this late-August Saturday.

SETUP IN PLACE

A broad upper trough draped over the eastern U.S. is the driver of our pattern. Behind a cold front sagging south through Alabama, dewpoints have dropped into the 50s and 60s across the north. High pressure anchored over the Great Lakes and Northeast is sliding eastward, keeping northeast flow in place. Meanwhile, the front lingers closer to the Gulf Coast, where richer moisture is fueling occasional showers and storms.

TODAY AND TONIGHT

For Alabama today, skies clear gradually from north to south with dry air entrenched over the Tennessee Valley and Central counties. North Alabama starts the morning in the upper 50s to lower 60s, while highs this afternoon range from near 90° west to the low 80s east. Farther south, cloud cover and leftover moisture keep scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in play. A few storms could produce heavier rain. Tonight, readings dip back into the 60s statewide under partly cloudy skies, with the driest air across the north.

HOLIDAY WEEKEND FORECAST

Sunday continues the trend of comfortable weather. With the front finally pressing farther into the Gulf, most of Central Alabama dries out, though southeast counties could see a few showers. Highs stay in the 80s, lows in the 60s. By Labor Day, the convergence zone lifts back northwest, bringing a return of scattered showers and thunderstorms to parts of the state. A sticky feel will return across the state with more moisture. Highs generally in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

LOOKING AHEAD

Tuesday and Wednesday bring an uptick in unsettled weather as several embedded disturbances ripple through the trough aloft. Showers and a few storms become more widespread, with locally heavy rain possible. By Thursday, a reinforcing cold front pushes southeast with another round of showers and storms possible in northern sections, though the strongest forcing may stay north of Alabama. Drier, cooler air then filters back in late week with dewpoints tumbling into the 40s and 50s.

FOOTBALL FORECAST

Today: The Crimson Tide will be in Tallahassee battling Florida State and perhaps a few showers and thunderstorms. Kickoff at 2:30 p.m. A mainly cloudy sky throughout the game with highs in the low to mid 80s.

ALABAMA FLOODING RISK

Southern Alabama sits within the Marginal Risk today. Scattered heavy downpours along the lingering boundary could trigger nuisance flooding in low-lying or urban areas, though widespread issues are not expected.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

The Atlantic basin remains mostly quiet, but eyes are on a tropical wave expected to emerge off Africa on Sunday. Development chances are low in the short term, but there’s a 30% chance of gradual organization over the next week as it tracks westward. No other systems are currently active.

BEAUTIFUL BEACHES

Along Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, surf is running around 1 foot with water temperatures in the mid 80s. Rip current risk is low today at Dauphin Island and Pensacola, but moderate at South Walton — so caution is advised there. Thunderstorms are likely at times, especially in the afternoon, and the UV index is very high. Highs stay in the low to mid 80s with light winds off the Gulf.

WEATHER HISTORY

On this date in 1950, Hurricane Baker made twin landfalls along the Alabama coast — first at Fort Morgan Peninsula, then near Spanish Fort and Daphne an hour later. Classified as a Category 1 hurricane, Baker produced wind gusts over 100 mph across the region and dropped 8–10 inches of rain. Pensacola recorded a pressure of 29.27 inches at 10 p.m. Damage stretched well inland, with roof and structural losses reported around Frisco City, and terrain-enhanced winds toppling power lines in Birmingham, killing one person and injuring two others. Baker also spawned tornadoes in its northeastern flank, including a waterspout that damaged 23 homes at Apalachicola, Florida, and another twister in Jackson County, Florida, that destroyed a home and damaged several more.

For more weather news and information from Drew McCombs and the rest of the James Spann team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.