Drew McCombs: Cool Alabama mornings, warm afternoons; an eye on the tropics this weekend

ALABAMA THIS MORNING

Fog was the main story early today, with a Dense Fog Advisory in effect for parts of north Alabama where visibility dropped below a quarter mile. Elsewhere, skies were mostly clear to partly cloudy. At 7 a.m., readings were in the lower 60s across the north, mid-60s central, and upper 60s to near 70 south. Conditions will turn sunny statewide later today, with highs warming into the 80s.

DANCING WITH THE STATS

Nogales, Arizona soaked its way into the record books Friday with nearly an inch of rain.

New daily record — 0.98″ (Old Record 0.47″ in 2014)

NATIONAL OUTLOOK

SOAKED SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
A stalled front will keep showers and thunderstorms going across the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday. Some of the heaviest rain today will target southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina, where localized flash flooding is possible. The Storm Prediction Center notes no severe thunderstorm risk.

FLASH FLOOD RISK IN THE SOUTHWEST
An upper low spinning over the region keeps showers and storms active across southern California, southwest Arizona, and south-central New Mexico today. Heavy rainfall rates may lead to flooding in vulnerable spots like burn scars and slot canyons. By Sunday, the focus shifts north and east into Utah and Colorado.

TROPICAL SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is slowly moving across the Bahamas and could approach the Southeast coast early next week. Track and impacts remain uncertain, but heavy rain and flash flooding are possible. We have more details on this system in the Tropics section below.

NATIONAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE
The nation’s high on Friday was 105° at Death Valley, California. The lowest temperature was 23° at Walden, Colorado.

ALABAMA WEATHER FORECAST

SUNNY SATURDAY WITH PATCHY FOG EARLY
Patchy fog developed across valleys and river bottoms this morning, but it will burn away quickly with sunshine taking over. Most of the state will be dry today, with just a stray shower possible in far eastern Alabama. Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s north, mid to upper 80s central and south.

CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT
Skies stay mostly clear overnight with comfortable readings. Lows will fall into the lower 60s across the north and mid-60s central and south, with a touch of upper 60s near the Coast. A little fog may redevelop in the usual valleys toward daybreak.

WARMER SUNDAY
High pressure overhead keeps most of the state dry, though a shower could sneak into the southeast corner. Temperatures climb back into the mid 80s north and upper 80s south, with a few low 90s near the Florida line.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
Dry air remains in place for most of Alabama as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine stays east of the state. A few showers may reach eastern and southeastern counties by Monday afternoon, but confidence is low. Otherwise, highs will run in the 80s, with overnight lows in the 60s. By midweek, northeast breezes increase, and highs may settle into the upper 70s to low 80s north with low to mid 80s south.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Late week trends hinge on the tropical system’s path. If it stays offshore, Alabama remains mostly dry with cooler readings, highs in the 70s north and low 80s south by Friday. Should it shift west, rain chances could tick up, especially across eastern counties. For now, plan on generally dry conditions with a gradual cool down.

FOOTBALL

AUBURN AT TEXAS A&M (SATURDAY, 2:30 p.m.)
Tailgating will be hot and sunny with highs near 90°. Expect a warm kickoff in the upper 80s, dropping to the mid 80s by game’s end.

ALABAMA AT GEORGIA (SATURDAY, 6:30 p.m.)
Tailgating in Athens will be warm in the 80s with a chance for a passing shower or storm. At kickoff, skies stay mostly cloudy with a stray storm possible early, then temperatures fall through the 70s as the game goes on.

TROPICS

HUMBERTO REMAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE
Humberto is a Category 4 hurricane this morning with winds of 145 mph, located about 375 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. It is drifting west but will gradually turn northwest and then north by early next week. Humberto is expected to stay powerful through the weekend, sending large swells toward the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Bermuda that will create dangerous surf and rip currents. Interests in Bermuda should closely monitor its progress.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE TO IMPACT THE BAHAMAS
The disturbance near the Bahamas is becoming better organized, with winds near 35 mph and a central pressure of 1005 mb. Once it reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Imelda. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for both the central and northwestern Bahamas, where tropical storm conditions are expected late today into Sunday. Forecasts call for steady strengthening, with the system likely becoming a tropical storm later today or tonight and reaching hurricane strength by late Monday. Rainfall totals of 8-12 inches (locally 16″) in eastern Cuba and 4-8 inches in the Bahamas could bring flash flooding and mudslides. Looking ahead, moisture from the system may extend well north into the Southeast U.S. and Virginia early next week, bringing the risk of flooding rains. Swells from both this system and Hurricane Humberto will also increase surf and rip current hazards along the Southeast coast.

BEACH

A golden start to the weekend awaits along the Gulf Coast, with sunshine, gentle north breezes, and highs in the upper 80s making for an inviting day on the sand. Surf stays calm around a foot with water temps in the mid-80s — perfect for a dip. Rip current risk is low from Dauphin Island to Pensacola, though South Walton beaches carry a moderate risk, so swimmers there should stick close to lifeguards. It’s a postcard kind of day to soak in the sun and let the waves set the pace.

WEATHER HISTORY

September 27, 2024: Hurricane Helene

Hurricane Helene slammed into Florida’s Big Bend on September 26, 2024, as a Category 4 hurricane. Even before landfall, a predecessor rainfall event soaked the southern Appalachians, setting the stage for disaster. By September 27, Helene’s remnants unleashed catastrophic flooding from eastern Tennessee into western North Carolina and neighboring parts of the southern Appalachians. Rainfall totals were staggering — 30.78 inches at Busick and over 24 inches at Mount Mitchell — fueling torrents that swept away mountain towns and triggered destructive mudslides. Nationwide, more than 250 lives were lost, with over 100 fatalities in North Carolina alone. Losses are projected to exceed $50 billion, cementing Helene as one of the deadliest and costliest hurricanes in U.S. history.

For more weather news and information from Drew McCombs and the rest of the James Spann team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.