Drew McCombs: Dry and cold Iron Bowl, beneficial rain ahead for Alabama
ALABAMA YESTERDAY
Black Friday dawned clear and cold across Alabama, with readings in the 20s common across the northern half of the state. South Alabama readings were in the 30s. Despite an ample supply of sunshine, afternoon readings only climbed into the 50s in most locations, with Cullman and Huntsville remaining in the 40s. Temperatures fell quickly into the 30s during the evening, creating a festive atmosphere for the holiday lighting ceremony at the Regions Center in downtown Birmingham as captured by Skywatcher Joey Amberson!
ALABAMA THIS MORNING
Clear skies cover the entire state early on this day after Thanksgiving, with temperatures starting in the mid 20s across the Tennessee Valley, upper 20s to low 30s through central Alabama, and mid to upper 30s along the Gulf Coast. Light winds and very dry air have kept fog from forming, leaving visibility excellent statewide. It’s a crisp and quiet start heading into a sunny but cool day.
ALABAMA 7 DAY FORECAST
One more frosty Alabama morning greets the state today, but sunshine and light winds will make for a pleasant, cool Saturday before a long stretch of rain begins late tonight and lasts into early next week.
SUNNY AND COOL TODAY
Temperatures rebound slowly this morning under bright sunshine, with highs reaching the low to mid 50s in north Alabama, mid to upper 50s across central counties, and low 60s in the south. A south-to-southeast breeze develops through the afternoon as surface high pressure shifts toward the East Coast. Clouds will gradually increase during the day, and some rain may reach North Alabama by late afternoon or evening.
SATURDAY NIGHT RAIN RETURNS
Rain spreads in from west to east after sunset and becomes more widespread overnight. North Alabama sees the earliest and heaviest coverage, with central Alabama filling in toward midnight and south Alabama seeing lighter, patchy showers by daybreak Sunday. Thunder is unlikely, and temperatures remain steady in the 40s and low 50s overnight.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: WET AND UNSETTLED
A cold front pushes through Sunday, keeping widespread rain going through midday before a brief lull Sunday night. The next, stronger system arrives Monday into Tuesday with a broad overrunning rain shield and pockets of heavier rainfall. Most of Alabama will see 1.5 to 2 inches of total rain, with some 2.5-inch pockets possible. Instability stays limited enough to avoid severe storms, though the Gulf Coast and far southern counties may hear a rumble or two near the boundary. Cooler air moves back in Tuesday night with lingering showers tapering off from west to east.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: MOSTLY DRY, LOW CONFIDENCE LATE WEEK
High pressure brings a break in the rain on Wednesday with highs in the 40s and 50s north and upper 50s to low 60s south. Model spread grows significantly late week, so a broad-brushed slight chance of showers returns Thursday. No severe weather signals appear at this time, and temperatures remain seasonable with cold mornings and cool afternoons.
THIS WEEK’S WEATHERBRAINS
This week’s episode of WeatherBrains will feature Dr. Owen Shieh. He is the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center. He has had an amazing career already in his relatively young life, serving in important positions in military meteorology and was named the Navy’s Oceanographer of the Year.
MAJOR WINTER STORM SLAMS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
A rapidly organizing winter storm is spreading heavy snow across the northern Plains this morning and will intensify as it races into the Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight and Sunday. Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin and Lower Michigan are in line for widespread 6–12-inch totals, with pockets of 12–15+ inches where banding sets up. Hazardous travel, low visibility and major delays at airports are likely through the remainder of the holiday weekend.
HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW LINGERS EARLY
Across western New York and surrounding Great Lakes areas, lake-effect snow continues early today before gradually tapering as high pressure settles overhead. Another 6–12 inches are possible downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario before the bands weaken. Blowing snow and gusty winds will keep travel slow early before conditions improve later in the day.
GULF COAST STORMS WITH LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE RISK
Moist Gulf return flow brings rounds of showers and thunderstorms from eastern Texas into southwest Louisiana later today through tonight. The WPC maintains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall with potential for brief training storms producing localized 3-inch totals. The SPC also has a Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms, including marginal hail, gusty winds and a very low-end tornado threat mainly in southeast Texas as the cold front pushes in.
COLD PATTERN HOLDS FOR MOST OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL U.S.
Much of the central and eastern U.S. stays locked in a chilly pattern today with temperatures well below late-November averages behind reinforcing surges of Canadian air. The coldest readings follow the Midwest–Great Lakes storm as it pulls toward the Northeast tonight, while warmer southerly flow begins to nudge into Florida and parts of the Southeast by Sunday.
QUIET AND MILD IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH CHANGES LOOMING
The Southwest enjoys one more stretch of calm, dry weather today with seasonable to slightly above-normal temperatures from southern California through Arizona and New Mexico. Sunshine dominates, travel conditions are excellent and no major hazards are expected. A pattern shift arrives early next week as the next Pacific system approaches, bringing increasing clouds and the return of showers to the West.
SUNNY SATURDAY ALONG THE COAST
A pleasant Saturday lines up for Alabama and Northwest Florida beaches, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s making it an inviting day to relax by the water. Surf runs 2 to 4 feet in Alabama and around 2 feet for the Florida Panhandle, with water temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. A moderate rip current risk is in place for most beaches, but Franklin County carries a high risk, so swimmers should use extra caution. Enjoy the sunshine today, but be aware that increasing clouds and shower chances arrive Sunday and Monday, along with rising surf and a growing rip current threat across the region.
IRON BOWL FORECAST
Expect a cold, dry evening for this year’s matchup between Alabama and Auburn at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Kickoff temperatures will be in the upper 40s, slipping into the mid 40s by the end of the game. Before fans head in, Auburn will see a partly to mostly sunny day with afternoon highs in the mid 50s.
TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
November 29, 2016 – NORTH ALABAMA TORNADOES
A major late-season tornado outbreak swept across the Southern United States on November 29-30, 2016, producing 39 tornadoes in a highly sheared and unstable atmosphere. More than 20 of them were in Alabama, many occurring after dark. Nine tornadoes across the region were rated EF2 or stronger, and three reached EF3 intensity. In Alabama, an EF2 near Addison grew to nearly 1,000 yards wide with winds up to 135 mph, damaging or destroying numerous homes and snapping concrete power poles. Another long-track EF2 moved almost 20 miles through Madison County, damaging at least 15 homes and heavily impacting a horse farm. Additional tornadoes affected Franklin, Colbert, Pickens, Marion, Winston, Jackson and Marshall counties. In all, six people were killed and 35 injured across the South. The event remains one of the most significant autumn outbreaks of the decade and highlighted the dangers of late-season, nighttime tornadoes in the Southeast.
Spann Skywatcher Daniel Harbin captured this gorgeous image of the chilly Friday evening sunset from Scottsboro!
For more weather news and information from Drew McCombs and the rest of the James Spann team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.