Drew McCombs: Warm with scattered storms for Alabama today; beautiful setup for next week
Friday featured another easterly wedge keeping the east cooler while a trough ushered drier air from the west. Central and south Alabama still managed scattered downpours, especially along old outflow and the sea-breeze. Today keeps the summer rhythm—sun, clouds, and pop-up storms—then a legit cold front sweeps through late Sunday into Monday, dialing down the humidity and setting up a refreshingly pleasant start to next week.
SYNOPTIC SETUP
A retrograding western ridge and a broad eastern trough are the tug-of-war players this weekend. At the surface, a weak, quasi-stationary boundary and a bit of an easterly wedge remain the spark for scattered to numerous thunderstorms today, with the richest moisture pooled across the southeast half of Alabama into the Panhandle. By Sunday, a stronger, bona fide cold front dives south through the Tennessee Valley and into central Alabama, focusing one more round of showers and storms before drier, continental air arrives.
SATURDAY & SUNDAY WEATHER
Today: partly sunny with scattered storms north and more numerous storms across the south/east. Highs generally mid–upper 80s north, upper 80s to near 90 south; any storm can drop a quick inch or two of rain, produce gusty outflow winds, and frequent lightning. Sunday: increasing clouds and another round of showers/storms, especially from Huntsville to Gadsden/Anniston during the day and spreading south by evening as the front presses through. Not a severe setup, but localized flooding is possible where storms train.
EARLY WEEK COOL DOWN
Behind the front Monday, dewpoints tumble and skies turn bright. North Alabama spends Monday-Tuesday in “false fall” territory—afternoon highs upper 70s to lower 80s with morning lows dipping into the upper 50s to lower 60s in valleys and hollows. Central and South Alabama turn drier and more comfortable as well, with highs in the 80s and notably less sticky air. A reinforcing, secondary front midweek likely renews the crisp feel.
LATE WEEK & NEXT WEEKEND
Late week trends dry and pleasantly warm: highs broadly in the 80s, nights in the 60s (some upper 50s north), and low humidity hanging on. Rain chances stay low to near-zero for most spots through Friday. Next weekend looks seasonable-to-pleasant with only small, terrain or sea-breeze driven shower chances if moisture briefly noses back—overall, a very friendly late-August stretch.
GOODBYE TO ERIN AND A THREAT TO BERMUDA
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin is history—the National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory as the system races through the northwestern Atlantic. The main feature to watch now is AL90 in the southwestern Atlantic, a trough a couple hundred miles northeast of the northern Leewards. Conditions look favorable, and a tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend as it moves northwest then north; Bermuda should monitor closely with watches/warnings possible as soon as Saturday. (Formation odds: 80% in 48 hours, 90% in 7 days.) Farther east, the AL99 tropical wave midway between Africa and the Windwards remains disorganized; a brief depression isn’t ruled out in the next day but a less-friendly environment should cap development until late weekend or early next week as it nears the Windwards (20% in 48 hours, 30% in 7 days). Bottom line for Alabama and the Gulf: no direct tropical threats on the board.
NATIONAL HIGHLIGHTS
A pair of fronts sets the stage nationwide: one slides from the Upper Midwest toward the Great Lakes/Northeast through Sunday with rounds of showers and thunderstorms, while a stalled boundary along the Gulf and Southeast coasts fuels widespread downpours and a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall through Saturday—especially from the Carolinas into Georgia. Farther west, monsoonal moisture sparks daily storms from the Southwest and Great Basin into the Central/Southern Rockies and High Plains, with another Slight Risk for heavy rain Saturday into Sunday across the Rockies/central Plains and a renewed flash-flood threat into early next week. Heat is the other headline: an expansive ridge bakes the West with Extreme Heat Warnings/Advisories from Arizona to Washington, little nighttime relief, and numerous record highs/lows likely. Early next week, the pattern stays amplified—hotter than normal in the interior Northwest, but cooler, almost early-fall air spreads east of the Divide with highs 15–25° below average in parts of the central Plains and periodic lake-enhanced showers downwind of the Great Lakes.
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
No organized severe weather is expected across the nation. A deepening trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest and a cold front from Upper Michigan to northeast New Mexico will spark isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from Lower Michigan through the Mid-Mississippi Valley and west across Kansas/Oklahoma into the central/southern High Plains. Instability (near ~1000 J/kg) will be offset by weak lift and poor frontal convergence, so storms should be spotty with only a marginal risk for brief gusty winds or small hail. Overall severe potential: low.
BEACH FORECAST
Emerald Coast & Alabama beaches are in classic late-August mode: surf around 1 ft with a low to moderate rip current risk (yellow flags across much of the Panhandle), water temps in the upper 80s, and a High to Extreme UV index. Skies run mostly sunny early, then scattered to numerous thunderstorms pop after lunch and linger toward sunset both today and Saturday. Storms will be slow-moving with downpours, frequent lightning, and brief gusty winds—when thunder roars, head indoors. Winds are light in the mornings (north to northeast), turning southwest 5–10 mph each afternoon; they ease and trend northwest overnight. Highs hold in the upper 80s along the beaches with muggy nights in the upper 70s.
Sunday brings a small dip in storm coverage west of Destin/Pensacola, but the 1-ft surf and mostly low rip risk continue area-wide. Early next week looks a bit brighter and less humid behind a weak front—more sun Monday–Tuesday, still gentle breezes and near-flat surf. Best beach windows: mornings through midday, with sunscreen, extra water and an eye on the sky. Even on “low risk” days, rips can form near piers and jetties—swim near a lifeguard and follow beach flags.
TODAY IN WEATHER HISTORY
On this date in 1992: Hurricane Andrew underwent explosive intensification. Early in the day it was a compact Category 3 (about 120 mph) roughly 380 miles east of Miami moving west near 15 mph; by mid-afternoon it had surged to a high-end Category 4, and by morning’s GOES-7 imagery Andrew had briefly reached Category 5 with 160 mph winds as it made its first landfall on Eleuthera in the Bahamas. The tiny, ferocious core drove a reported ~23-foot surge over parts of Current Island and caused hundreds of millions in damage across the islands. As night fell, Andrew’s well-defined eye closed to within 100 miles of Miami, bearing down on Homestead; warnings grew urgent, and a backup National Hurricane Center team was pre-positioned in Washington, D.C., to ensure continuous advisories should the Coral Gables office be compromised. Less than 12 hours later, Andrew would devastate South Florida at Category 5.
For more news and weather information from Drew McCombs and the rest of the James Spann team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.