James Spann: A few showers for Alabama today; more cool air arrives tonight

SHOWERS TODAY: A cold front will pass through Alabama today, and a narrow band of light showers will likely form ahead of the front. Moisture is very limited, and rain amounts will be light. Otherwise, expect a partly sunny sky today with a high in the 70s. A new surge of cool, dry air follows the front tonight.

The weather will be dry tomorrow through Saturday with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights. Most North Alabama communities won’t get out of the 60s tomorrow, and colder spots will drop into the 30s early Thursday morning. Highs will be in the 70s Thursday through Saturday.

Rain returns to the state Sunday ahead of an upper trough; a few lingering showers are possible Monday. While Tuesday looks dry at this point, next week looks relatively wet with a chance of rain returning Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an upper low.

TROPICS: Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that the broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to become better defined, with winds near 45 mph, though it still lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical storm is expected to form later today while the system moves slowly over the central Caribbean Sea.

Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds and rough surf later this week.

NHC gives it a 90% chance of development; the name will be Melissa. Models continue to show two primary solutions; one involves a northward turn toward Hispaniola; the mountainous island will likely disrupt the circulation, which could lead to the system dissipating. If anything survives, it would head northeast into the open Atlantic. The other solution is a westward drift into Central American. No ensemble member shows this system getting into the Gulf.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn will be at Arkansas Saturday (11:45 a.m. kickoff) … the sky will be cloudy with periods of rain likely during the game; temperatures will hover around 60 degrees.

Alabama travels to Columbia to take on South Carolina Saturday (2:30 p.m. kickoff) … the weather will be dry with a sunny sky. Expect low 70s at kickoff, upper 60s by the final whistle.

ON THIS DATE IN 1988: Hurricane Joan, the last hurricane of the season, neared the coast of Nicaragua packing 125 mph winds. Joan claimed more than 200 lives as she moved over Central America, and total damage approached $1.5 billion. Crossing more than 40 degrees of longitude, Hurricane Joan never strayed even one degree from the 12-degree north parallel. After crossing Central America into the Pacific, the cyclone was renamed Tropical Storm Miriam, with the system’s dissipation occurring southwest of Mexico.

ON THIS DATE IN 2005: Wilma made landfall on the island of Cozumel, Mexico as a Category-4 Hurricane. After devastating the Yucatan Peninsula, Wilma made a U-turn and moved across the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall again in southern Florida during the morning hours of October 24th, bringing hurricane-force winds to the Florida Keys along with the highest storm surge observed in the Keys since Hurricane Betsy in 1965.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.