James Spann: A wet Friday for much of Alabama; mostly dry Saturday and Sunday

RADAR CHECK: Showers are moving into Northwest Alabama early this morning ahead of a disturbance that will bring periods of rain to the state through tonight. SPC has actually defined a very low end “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms for much of North and West Alabama, but with very limited instability and weak dynamics we just don’t expect any real problems, although some thunder is possible.
Rain amounts will be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range for the northern half of the state; the southern counties will see lighter totals, mostly under 1/4 inch. The weather stays mild with a high in the 70s.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A few spots could see a stray shower early tomorrow, otherwise the weekend will be dry. The sky becomes partly sunny tomorrow with a high in the 74–80-degree range. Sunday will be a mostly sunny day with highs between 67 and 74 degrees.

THANKSGIVING WEEK: Monday will be dry and pleasant with a high in the low to mid 70s. Rain returns to the state Tuesday; a few thunderstorms could be involved but at this point it doesn’t look like a severe weather situation. Rain moves out very early Wednesday, followed by a clearing sky.

Thanksgiving is looking cool and dry with highs mostly in the 50s after a morning low in the 30s. “Black Friday” is also looking cool and dry.
Forecast confidence in weather for the following weekend (November 29-30) isn’t especially high with global models struggling to be consistent in an active pattern. They have trended warmer, and there is evidence some rain could return to the state by Sunday.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Auburn hosts Mercer tomorrow (1 p.m. kickoff) … the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s during the first half, falling into the upper 60s by the final whistle.

Alabama will host Eastern Illinois in Tuscaloosa (1 p.m. kickoff) … the sky will be partly sunny with temperatures falling from the mid 70s in the first half to near 70 by the fourth quarter.

UAB hosts South Florida at Protective Stadium (2 p.m. kickoff) … dry and mild with temperatures in the mid 70s at kickoff, falling into the 60s by the final whistle.

EARLY IRON BOWL FORECAST: The biggest game of the year in Alabama is in Auburn this year (Saturday November 29 at 6:30 p.m.) … on the positive side models are trending warmer, now suggesting temperatures could be in the 50s and 40s during the game (as opposed to 30s we saw in runs earlier this week). And, for now, the weather looks dry although clouds will be increasing.

ON THIS DATE IN 1992: The November 21-23, 1992 tornado outbreak was the third largest outbreak in recorded history and one of the longest continuous outbreaks ever recorded. There was no break in tornado activity from 1:30 pm on the 21st when the tornadoes started in Texas until 7:30 am on the 23rd when the last tornadoes lifted in North Carolina.

On this date, severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes within 70 minutes in the Houston metro area in Texas. At one time, there were three on the ground in Harris County. The strongest, an F4, tracked 20 miles through the eastern suburbs of Houston destroying 200 homes and damaging 1,000 more. In total, 23 tornadoes struck Mississippi and Alabama. An F4 tornado killed 12 people on a 128-mile track through seven Mississippi counties, the deadliest tornado of 1992.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.