James Spann: Alabama could see a few showers tomorrow; another shot of cool air arrives Wednesday

BLUE SKY: Not a cloud in the sky across the Deep South this afternoon; temperatures are mostly in the 70s. Tonight will be another clear, cool nights with lows in the 40s and 50s.

A cold front will pass through the state tomorrow with a few scattered light showers, followed by even cooler air over the latter half of the week. The weather will be dry Wednesday through Friday … the northern third of the state will see highs in the 60s Wednesday, with lows in the 35–40-degree range early Thursday morning.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The weather stays dry Saturday with a high in the 70s, but we will bring in a chance of rain Sunday statewide ahead of an upper trough; some rain is likely at times into the first part of next week … See the video briefing for maps, graphics and more details.

TROPICS: Recent satellite wind data indicate the tropical wave (Invest 98L) located over the eastern Caribbean Sea still lacks a closed circulation but continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of the wave axis. Compared to yesterday, surface observations suggest the circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive for development as the system slows its forward motion.

A tropical depression or storm is now likely to form over the next day or two as it moves into the central Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days.

NHC gives it a 90% chance of development; if the system reaches tropical storm strength the name will be Melissa. A number of ensemble members are showing a sharp turn to the north in 5-6 days taking the system over Hispaniola. This mountainous island could disrupt the circulation with dissipation possible; if anything survives it will move northeast out into the open Atlantic. A few ensemble members continue to show a weak system moving in the direction of Central America.

No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for at least the next 7-10 days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1983: Remnants of Pacific Hurricane Tico caused extensive flooding in central and south-central Oklahoma. Oklahoma City set daily rainfall records with 1.45 inch on the 19th, and 6.28 inches on the 20th.

ON THIS DATE IN 2004: Typhoon Tokage blasted across Japan triggers flash floods that wash away entire hillsides, killing 55 people and leaving at least 24 people missing.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.