James Spann: Alabama will see hotter days with isolated showers and storms ahead

RADAR CHECK: Most of Alabama is dry today, we note one isolated shower over far western Lauderdale County, and a few storms over the southwest counties at mid-afternoon. Temperatures are mostly in the 88-92 degree range; we will maintain the chance of isolated showers or storms through early tonight.

We expect pretty much the same situation tomorrow; a partly to mostly sunny sky … the best chance of an afternoon shower or storm will be over the southern half of the state.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: As the upper ridge continues to build, afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s over the weekend with only isolated afternoon showers or storms. Many communities will be rain-free over the weekend.

Not much change is expected through the first half of next week. Highs will remain in the 90-95 degree range for much of the state with afternoon storms remaining very isolated. Global models suggest the ridge will weaken late in the week; highs drop into the upper 80s over the northern half of the state by Friday (August 22) with a better coverage of afternoon showers/storms. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Erin, now with 60 mph winds, continues to move west across the open Atlantic at 17 mph. The system is expected to become a hurricane late tonight or tomorrow. It will pass north of the Leeward Islands and Puerto, and then it turns north, east of the Bahamas, this weekend. By that time Erin is expected to become a major hurricane with winds of 125 mph (category three strength). Erin is expected to remain well east of the U.S. East Coast, but it could be closer to Bermuda by the middle of next week.

Also … shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with an area of low pressure (Invest 98L) located over the Bay of Campeche. The low is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf during the next day or so, where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development. A tropical depression could form before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late tomorrow ending its chances for tropical development. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is en route to investigate this system.

NHC gives the system a 40% chance of development; it will be mainly a rainmaker for Northeast Mexico, and possibly the southern tip of Texas.

No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the northern Gulf for at least the next seven days.

ON THIS DATE IN 1953: Hurricane Barbara hits North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane. Damage from the storm was relatively minor, totaling around $1.3 million (1953 USD). Most of it occurred in North Carolina and Virginia from crop damage. The hurricane left several injuries, some traffic accidents, as well as seven fatalities in the eastern United States; at least two were due to electrocution from downed power lines. Offshore Atlantic Canada, a small boat sunk, killing its crew of two.

ON THIS DATE IN 1969: Hurricane Camille, a powerful, deadly, and destructive hurricane formed just west of the Cayman Islands on this day. It rapidly intensified, and by the time it reached western Cuba the next day, it was a Category 3 hurricane. Hurricane Camille was spawned on August 5th by a tropical wave off the coast of Africa. The storm became a tropical disturbance four days later on the 9th and a tropical storm on the 14th with a 999-millibar pressure center and 55 mph surface winds. It would make landfall on August 17, 1969 on the Mississippi coast.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.