James Spann: Alabama will see rain arrive late Saturday night; cooler days follow into next week
WARM OCTOBER DAY: Temperatures are in the 80s across Alabama this afternoon with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Tonight will be fair with a low in the 60s.
Warm, dry weather continues across Alabama tomorrow with highs in the 80s and only small, isolated showers.
RAIN RETURNS: An approaching cold front will bring a band of rain and thunderstorms into the state late tomorrow night. Rain should begin across the northwest corner of the state around 11 p.m. and it should exit the eastern counties early Sunday afternoon. We note SPC has defined a low end “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms across much of North and West Alabama for the activity late tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Sunday.
With only modest instability and weakening dynamic support, the overall severe threat in Alabama is low. But, a few of the heavier storms could produce small hail and strong, gusty winds over Northwest Alabama.
On the positive side, rain amounts will be around one inch for the northwest part of the state, 1/2 to 1 inch for the central counties, and under 1/2 inch for South Alabama. Not a drought buster, but you have to start somewhere. Rain should be out of the state by mid-afternoon Sunday; the high will be in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: At this point most of next week looks rain-free. A cold front will pass through on Tuesday, but in a dry airmass rain isn’t expected. The coolest air so far this season will move in over the latter half of the week with highs in the low to mid 70s, lows will be in the 40s. Colder spots over North Alabama could dip onto the 30s Thursday morning. See the video briefing for maps, graphics and more details.
TROPICS: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic more than 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend and then move across the Caribbean Sea much of next week.
NHC gives the feature a 30% chance of development.
No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for at least the next 7-10 days.
RACE WEEKEND: The weather will be warm and dry in Talladega tomorrow and Saturday with high in the 80s. A cold front will bring rain to East Alabama Sunday morning, but the latest model data continues to suggest the rain will be over by 1 p.m. … mid to late afternoon should be rain-free. Sunday’s high will be in the 70s.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: UAB will host Memphis tomorrow afternoon at Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham (3 p.m. kickoff) … expect a partly sunny sky with temperatures in the mid 80s at kickoff … falling into the 70s by the fourth quarter.
Alabama hosts Tennessee tomorrow night (6:30 p.m. kickoff) … the sky becomes mostly cloudy during the game, but for now it looks like the organized batch of rain and storms will hold off in Tuscaloosa until after 11 p.m. Just a small risk of a shower during the game … temperatures will fall through the 70s.
Auburn hosts Missouri (6:45 p.m. kickoff) … the sky becomes mostly cloudy, but we are not expecting any rain. Temperatures fall through the 70s.
ON THIS DATE IN 1998: During the weekend of October 17-18, 1998, torrential rains fell over southern and southeast Texas. Up to 22 inches of rain fell, which first resulted in deadly flash flooding from San Antonio to Austin followed by record-breaking river floods along several South Texas rivers the following week.
For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.