James Spann: Flash flood watch issued for North/Central Alabama

MILD WINTER WEATHER: Temperatures are in the 70s over the southern 2/3 of Alabama this afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds; as expected showers have been few and far between. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with just a few isolated showers around.

RAIN/STORMS RETURN: A very wet period is ahead for Alabama, especially the northern half of the state, tomorrow and into part of the day Saturday. A slow moving cold front will bring potential for 2-4 inches of rain to North/Central Alabama, and there could be some flooding issues along the way. A flash flood watch has been issued for areas along and north of a line from Sweetwater to Prattville to Tallassee to Valley.

Rain amounts will be much lighter for the southern third of the state, generally under one inch.

The rain will end Saturday morning across North Alabama, and by afternoon most of the rain should be over the southeast counties of the state.

SPC maintains a “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for parts of Northwest and West-Central Alabama tomorrow/tomorrow night, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) defined as far east as Lafayette, Greenville and Orange Beach.

This is very conditional severe weather threat. High resolution models show only a very small amount of surface-based instability, which will likely limit any severe thunderstorm formation. Should instability values be higher than forecast, a few storms could produce strong winds. A brief, isolated tornado is possible, but not likely. Heavy rain/flooding is the main concern with this event.

Colder air will roll into Alabama after the rain; temperatures will likely fall through the 50s over the northern counties Saturday. Sunday will be sunny and colder with highs in the 40s and 50s. A freeze is likely for much of the state by Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: The weather looks quiet with seasonal temperatures; highs in the 40s and 50s, lows in the 20s and 30s. A few sprinkles are possible Wednesday or Thursday, but for now the chance of significant rain looks low through the week. See the video briefing for maps, graphics and more details.

ON THIS DATE IN 1953: An F2 tornado passed directly through Talladega, damaging the roofs of 23 structures and blowing down trees onto telephone and power lines.

ON THIS DATE IN 1973: Georgia’s worst ice storm since 1935 was winding down. Freezing rain and sleet began during the early morning hours on Sunday the 7th and ended in most areas on Monday. Total damage was estimated at well over $25 million. The electric power companies suffered losses estimated at $5 million, and telephone companies had another $2 million in damages. Some schools were closed for more than a week.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.