James Spann: Higher rain chances ahead; lower heat levels for Alabama
RADAR CHECK: Most of Alabama is rain-free this afternoon with just a few isolated showers on radar. The large mass of storms that moved across the Tennessee Valley has moved out of the state; parts of Limestone and Madison counties saw 3-4 inches of rain this morning. Showers will remain isolated tonight; lows will be in the 68–73-degree range.
We expect an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Thursday ahead of a cold front. SPC has much of North and West Alabama in a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms tomorrow and tomorrow night, and most of South Alabama in a marginal risk Thursday.
Heavier storms will be capable of producing strong, gusty winds and some hail. On the positive side, most Alabama communities have a good chance of seeing 1-2 inches of rain. By Friday any lingering showers should be over the southern third of the state. Highs remain in the low 90s today and tomorrow, then dropping into the low 80s Thursday and Friday.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Most of Alabama will be dry, but an upper low will be parked over the region, and this feature could bring a few isolated showers to the eastern counties of the state. Rain there should be light and spotty; highs will be in the low- to mid-80s. Many North Alabama communities will dip into the upper 50s early Saturday and Sunday morning.
For now we don’t see any major rain events next week, although there could be a day or two with spotty showers around. Highs will be in the 80s … See the video briefing for maps, graphics and more details.
TROPICS: This afternoon Hurricane Gabrielle, with winds of 130 mph, is about 445 miles east/northeast of Bermuda. It is moving to the east/northeast at 13 mph and no immediate threat to land. However, it will be close to the Azores by Thursday night.
Two tropical waves are in the Atlantic; one (Invest 93L) is about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles with a high chance of development. This one will follow Gabrielle and will remain well east of the U.S.
The other wave (Invest 94L) is near the Leeward Islands; this one could become a tropical depression near the Bahamas later this week. Global models suggest this one could move close to the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S., mainly as a rainmaker, by early next week. We note some ensemble members show little development.
No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for at least the next 7-10 days.
ON THIS DATE IN 1975: Hurricane Eloise made landfall as a major hurricane about 10 miles east of Fort Walton Beach at 7 a.m. According to the NOAA Assessment, Herbert Saffir estimated winds in excess of 120 mph based on the structural wind damage he observed. Shortly after Eloise made landfall, a peak wind gust of 115 mph was recorded at Eglin AFB (before the instrument failed) with 85 mph gusts at Hurlburt Field.
Wind damage from Eloise was widespread across the northwest Florida panhandle and further inland across southern portions of Alabama and Georgia. There was extreme tree and crop damage all along the path of Eloise. In Alabama, the State Civil Defense estimated agricultural losses in excess of $100 million. Thousands of trees were toppled and utility lines were knocked down across the area; 85-90% of the buildings between Fort Walton Beach and Panama City Beach (on the Gulf side of U.S. 98) were severely damaged or destroyed. At least 150 buildings were destroyed or unrepairable, 75 motel foundations were destroyed and 400 other buildings were damaged in that area.
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