James Spann: Hot afternoons for Alabama with cooler temperatures arriving by the weekend

HOT: Most communities will see a high in the 93-96 degree range today and tomorrow with a good supply of sunshine. Of course, we have the risk of a pop-up thunderstorm on any summer afternoon, but they should be isolated. The chance of any one spot seeing rain through tomorrow is 15-25%, generally between noon and midnight.

The upper ridge over the region weakens over the latter half of the week with slowly falling heat levels and a general increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms. By Friday the high will drop into the upper 80s for the northern half of the state.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Look for a mix of clouds and clouds Saturday and Sunday with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms both days. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, below average for mid to late August in Alabama.

A few showers and storms are likely early next week as a surface front pushes into the Deep South. Some global models are suggesting we could see drier continental air by the middle of the week with lows well down in the 60s over the northern 2/3 of the state.

TROPICS: Hurricane Erin this morning is packing sustained winds of 130 mph, at category four strength. It is about 105 miles north/northeast of Grand Turk Island, moving to the northwest at 13 mph. Erin will pass between the U.S. and Bermuda in coming days, then turning northeast out into the colder water of the North Atlantic.

While the hurricane will remain well east of the U.S. … it will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of the U.S., Bermuda and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

East of Erin, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the latter part of the week while moving westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic, possibly approaching the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday.

NHC gives this feature a 50% chance of development; it is way too early to know if there will be any impact on Florida or the U.S. It is simply something to watch for now.

ON THIS DATE IN 1931: The Yangtze River in China peaks during a horrible flood that kills 3.7 million people directly and indirectly over the next several months. This flood was perhaps the worst natural disaster of the 20th century.

ON THIS DATE IN 1969: Camille was inland and weakening after making landfall the day before at Waveland, Mississippi at category five strength. Camille tracked through the Ohio Valley as a tropical depression, bringing heavy rainfall and catastrophic flooding before moving back offshore on the coast of Virginia.

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