James Spann: Major winter storm possible for North Alabama this weekend
SUNNY JANUARY DAY: The sky is sunny across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures ranging from the low 40s across the Tennessee Valley to the low 60s along the coast. Tonight will be mostly clear with a low in the 26–36-degree range.
Most of tomorrow will be dry, but some rain could reach the northwest corner off the state by afternoon. Expect some scattered light rain Thursday and Friday with highs in the 48–55-degree range for most communities.
WEEKEND WINTER STORM: Global models remain very consistent in advertising the potential for a high impact winter storm for the northern half of Alabama this weekend. Here are the key messages this afternoon …
*Best chance of snow is over the far northern part of the state, especially along and north of the Tennessee River. Some communities near the Tennessee state line could see 3-5 inches.
*South of the Tennessee River an extended period of freezing rain seems likely due to a shallow layer of very cold air. This is precipitation that falls in liquid form when temperatures are at or below freezing. This leads to ice accumulation on bridges, roads, trees and other exposed surfaces, and can bring potential for power outages and very difficult travel conditions. Global models continue to suggest potential for some very significant ice accumulation across North Alabama.
*One positive is that temperatures will be in the 50s tomorrow through Friday, so the infrastructure won’t be especially cold at the onset of the event.
*Defining the southern extent of the ice threat is always the hardest part of a forecast like this, and the line between a cold, rainy day and major icing can move back and forth during the event. At the moment is look like some ice accumulation will be possible as far south as Livingston, Greensboro, Clanton, Lake Martin and Opelika by Saturday night or Sunday morning. But the main impact and more significant ice accumulation will be along and north of I-20. Of course, this is very much subject to change.
*The risk of snow/ice will begin as early as midnight Friday night over Northwest Alabama; precipitation will cover much of the state Saturday and Sunday.
*Road conditions could remain icy and hazardous across North Alabama into early next week, although the ice and snow will end Sunday night.
*South Alabama will see just a cold rain from this event.
*We do note the reliable European global model shows a layer of relatively warmer air in the lower levels moving up into Central Alabama Sunday afternoon; there is a chance we could see a period of rain with temperatures above freezing (in the mid 30s) for a few hours, which could help ease icing conditions to some degree. But there is no guarantee this happens.
*This winter storm will impact a wide area in coming days, from Texas to the Carolinas. Winter storm watches are up now for much of Oklahoma, North Texas, Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana. These watches will be extended eastward tonight and tomorrow as we get close to the event.
*It is still too early for a specific impact forecast for any given location. There simply isn’t enough skill with the event still four days away. But understand there is a high chance travel will become difficult, if not impossible over much of North Alabama (especially along and north of I-20) and Tennessee Saturday and Sunday. Parts of Tennessee could see one foot of snow.
*If you live anywhere over the northern half of Alabama consider planning now for difficult travel and power outages. It is a course of least regret. Best case is that you wind up with a cold rain, worst case is a crippling ice storm that can lead to power outages for days, if not weeks in some isolated cases. Where mostly snow falls along and north of the Tennessee River, power outages will be only isolated.
NEXT WEEK: Very cold nights will follow the weekend winter storm; temperatures could drop into the single digits by Tuesday morning with a clear sky and light wind. The week looks dry with highs in the 30s and 40s. See the video briefing for maps, graphics and more details.
ON THIS DATE IN 1937: The wettest Inaugural Day of record with 1.77 inches of rain in 24 hours. Temperatures were only in the 30s as Franklin D. Roosevelt was sworn in for his second term.
For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.