James Spann: Rain ahead for Alabama; some ice possible over the weekend
RADAR CHECK: A large mass of rain is moving into Alabama this afternoon ahead of a surface front; we expect periods of rain tonight and tomorrow. No ice issues; temperatures will be well above freezing tonight.
Some scattered light rain is also possible Friday; highs will be in the upper 40s and low 50s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: A winter storm watch is in effect for the northern third of Alabama for the weekend. The watch is for areas along and north of a line from Millport to Fayette to Jasper to Oneonta to Gadsden to Spring Garden. For now the watch does not include Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston or points south.
Here are the key messages this afternoon …
*Some freezing rain will likely begin across Northwest Alabama Saturday morning with temperatures in the 27–32-degree range. Ice accumulation is likely there through midday, but by afternoon mid to upper 30s are likely, which could ease icing conditions.
*The reliable European global model continues to show a large warm sector (relatively speaking) associated with the surface low moving northward. This should keep much of North Alabama above freezing from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. It suggests temperatures will be in the 55–60-degree range Sunday at 7 a.m. as far north as I-20 … upper 30s and low 40s are likely across the western half of the Tennessee Valley at that time.
*However we will have to watch for a CAD pattern (cold air damming) to bring colder air into Northeast Alabama Saturday night; this could open the door for some freezing rain and ice issues across counties like Jackson, DeKalb, Cherokee and Cleburne.
*For the rest of Alabama, with the warmer air in the low levels, precipitation should be mainly rain Saturday night into early Sunday.
*Temperatures will fall quickly during the day Sunday as the surface low moves northeast, away from the state. But the precipitation will be ending as the cold air rolls in. There could be a period of snow or freezing rain on the back side of the large precipitation mass Sunday afternoon.
*Temperatures will drop into the 10–18-degree range over the northern half of Alabama by daybreak Monday, and some black ice issues are a very real possibility on roads Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures over North Alabama will stay below freezing all day Monday despite the return of sunshine.
BOTTOM LINE: With the trend toward warmer temperatures in the low levels, much of the precipitation across Alabama will likely be in the form of rain over the weekend. However, there are three windows of concern.
-Icing across Northwest Alabama Saturday morning at the onset of the event
-Icing across Northeast Alabama Saturday night (cold air damming)
-Black ice on roads across the northern half of Alabama Sunday night and Monday morning.
I will have a specific impact forecast early tomorrow morning.
The coldest air so far this season will settle Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the 10–20-degree range for North/Central Alabama, low 20s are likely down to the Gulf Coast. Some North Alabama communities could see single digits lows by early Tuesday morning. See the video briefing for maps, graphics and more details.
ON THIS DATE IN 2025: A generational winter storm brought heavy snow to the Gulf Coast and southern parts of Alabama. Mobile Regional Airport set a new two-day snowfall record with an impressive 7.5 inches of measured snow. This surpassed the previous two-day snowfall record of 6.0 inches of snow, which had stood since the February Snowstorm of 1895. Pensacola shattered its previous two-day snowfall record with an incredible 8.9 inches of measured snow. This far surpassed the prior two-day record of 3.0 inches of snow, set during the February Snowstorm of 1895.
For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit the Alabama Weather Network.