James Spann: Rain arrives in Alabama late tomorrow night into Sunday morning
WARM/DRY TODAY: Alabama’s weather won’t change much today … expect a mostly sunny sky with a high in the 80s. Tomorrow will be generally dry, although a few small, isolated showers can’t be ruled out. Temperatures rise into the 80s again tomorrow afternoon.
RAIN RETURNS: An approaching cold front will bring a band of rain and thunderstorms into the state late tomorrow night. Rain should begin across the northwest corner of the state around 11 p.m. and it should exit the eastern counties early Sunday afternoon. We note SPC has defined a low end “marginal risk” of severe thunderstorms across much of North and West Alabama for the activity late tomorrow night into the pre-dawn hours Sunday.
With only modest instability and weakening dynamic support, the overall severe threat in Alabama is low. But, a few of the heavier storms could produce small hail and strong, gusty winds over Northwest Alabama.
On the positive side, rain amounts will be around one inch for the northwest part of the state, 1/2 to 1 inch for the central counties, and under 1/2 inch for South Alabama. Not a drought buster, but you have to start somewhere. Rain should be out of the state by mid-afternoon Sunday; the high will be in the 70s.
NEXT WEEK: At this point most of next week looks rain-free. A cold front will pass through on Tuesday, but in a dry airmass rain isn’t expected. The coolest air so far this season will move in over the latter half of the week with highs in the low to mid 70s, lows will be in the 40s. Colder spots over North Alabama could dip onto the 30s Thursday morning.
TROPICS: A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
NHC gives the feature a 30% chance of development.
No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for at least the next 7-10 days.
RACE WEEKEND: The weather will be warm and dry in Talladega tomorrow and Saturday with high in the 80s. A cold front will bring rain to East Alabama Sunday morning, but the latest model data continues to suggest the rain will be over by 1 p.m. … mid to late afternoon should be rain-free. Sunday’s high will be in the 70s.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: UAB will host Memphis tomorrow afternoon at Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham (3 p.m. kickoff) … expect a partly sunny sky with temperatures in the mid 80s at kickoff … falling into the 70s by the fourth quarter.
Alabama hosts Tennessee tomorrow night (6:30 p.m. kickoff) … the sky becomes mostly cloudy during the game, but for now it looks like the organized batch of rain and storms will hold off in Tuscaloosa until after 11 p.m. Just a small risk of a shower during the game … temperatures will fall through the 70s.
Auburn hosts Missouri (6:45 p.m. kickoff) … the sky becomes mostly cloudy, but we are not expecting any rain. Temperatures fall through the 70s.
ON THIS DATE IN 1998: During the weekend of October 17-18, 1998, torrential rains fell over southern and southeast Texas. Up to 22 inches of rain fell, which first resulted in deadly flash flooding from San Antonio to Austin followed by record-breaking river floods along several South Texas rivers the following week.
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