James Spann: Rain returns to Alabama Sunday; cool air settles in next week

DRY THROUGH TOMORROW: Alabama’s weather will stay rain-free through tomorrow with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Clouds will increase late tomorrow, and rain returns to the state Sunday. We note SPC has defined a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for Southwest Alabama Sunday, but for most of the state the air will be cool and stable with just a steady, beneficial rain. Rain amounts could easily exceed one inch before it tapers off late Sunday night. Temperatures will hold in the 60s Sunday with clouds and rain.

NEXT WEEK: An upper trough will bring the chance of a few spotty showers over the first half of the week; Thursday and Friday will be dry. The coolest air so far this season will arrive late in the week when highs drop into the 50s over North Alabama, with lows in the 30s and 40s.

TROPICS: This morning Tropical Storm Melissa, with 45 mph winds, is about 165 miles south/southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It is stationary. Melissa will strengthen over the weekend as it moves northward, becoming a hurricane Saturday just south of Jamaica. A turn to the west comes Sunday as the hurricane passes just south of Jamaica. By early next week Melissa is expected to be a dangerous, category four hurricane with winds of 145 mph. It will turn north, just west of Jamaica, and will move over the eastern part of Cuba by mid-week.

Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica later today or on Saturday.

Late next week the system should accelerate to the northeast in response to a deep upper trough digging over the eastern part of North America. This will keep Melissa east of the U.S.

No tropical storms or hurricanes are expected across the Gulf for the next 10 days.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: The annual Magic City Classic is tomorrow at Birmingham’s Legion Field; Alabama State vs Alabama A&M (2:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be partly sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s at kickoff, falling to near 70 degrees by the final whistle.

Auburn will be at Arkansas tomorrow (11:45 a.m. kickoff) … the sky will be cloudy with periods of rain likely during the game; temperatures will hover in the low to mid 60s.

Alabama travels to Columbia to take on South Carolina tomorrow (2:30 p.m. kickoff) … the weather will be dry with a sunny sky. Expect low 70s at kickoff, upper 60s by the final whistle.

ON THIS DATE IN 2005: Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Florida, in the southwestern part of the state. It was a Category 3 storm when it hit near Cape Romano with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph. The hurricane then crossed the state, exiting into the Atlantic Ocean near Jupiter. Wind damage accounted for much of the storm’s overall damage. The very large eye of Wilma moved across all of or portions of six counties – Broward, Collier, Hendry, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. This resulted in widespread hurricane-force sustained winds and gusts.

For more weather news and information from James Spann, visit the Alabama Weather Network.