James Spann: Severe storms possible in Alabama tonight; highest risk over south Alabama

RADAR CHECK: Rain is widespread over northern Alabama this afternoon, north of a warm front that is over south Alabama. There is a huge temperature range; many communities across northeast Alabama are in the 40s thanks to a cold air damming pattern that brings in colder air from the east. But Dothan and some other spots across southeast Alabama are in the low 80s.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for parts of central and south Alabama through tonight.

A tornado watch has also been issued for southwest Alabama until 10 p.m.

Here are the key messages for tonight’s severe weather threat in Alabama:

• The northern extent of the severe weather threat will be determined by the position of the warm front. Most of the reliable high-resolution models move the front to a position near or just north of U.S. 80 tonight. The core threat of severe storms will be over the southern half of the state. The air over most of north Alabama will remain rain-cooled and stable. Where temperatures are in the 40s over northeast Alabama there is no risk of severe storms.
• There will be multiple waves of storms from roughly 3 p.m. until midnight. A few severe storms could linger into the early morning across southeast Alabama, although the intensity should be decreasing.
• Heavier storms over the southern half of Alabama will be capable of producing strong winds and a few tornadoes. The highest tornado threat is in the enhanced risk area, especially along and south of U.S. 80.
• A flood watch remains in effect for parts of central and northeast Alabama through tonight. Additional rain amounts of 1-2 inches are likely.

Any lingering showers will end early in the day Thursday, followed by a clearing sky. A freeze is likely early Friday morning for north Alabama; the day will be mostly sunny with a high between 58 and 64 degrees.

STORMY WEEKEND: A dynamic weather system will bring another threat of severe thunderstorms to Alabama over the weekend. The SPC has defined a risk for most of Alabama, with an enhanced risk for the western counties.

Saturday will be mild and windy, with temperatures reaching the 70s. Much of the day will be dry; then an organized batch of rain and storms will arrive Saturday night into early Sunday. All modes of severe weather will be possible, but we need to get today’s system out of here before we can be specific about the magnitude, the timing and the tornado threat.

Sunday will be cooler and breezy with a clearing sky, and a freeze is likely for most of the state by Monday morning.

NEXT WEEK: The week will be cool, with highs in the 40s and 50s; global models continue to suggest a big rainmaker either Wednesday or Thursday.

ON THIS DATE IN 1958: Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan, reported zero visibility in heavy snow in the afternoon.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.