James Spann: Showers, storms likely today in Alabama; drier air begins to arrive Wednesday

RADAR CHECK: Showers are isolated across Alabama early this morning, but a number of showers and thunderstorms will form across the state later today and tonight ahead of a surface front. The Storm Prediction Center maintains a marginal risk of severe storms for most of the state today; heavier storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts, heavy rain, lots of lightning and possibly some small hail. The high will be between 86 and 90 degrees for most communities.

Drier air begins to push into the Deep South late tonight, and on Wednesday showers will be confined to the southern third of the state. Even there, they should be widely scattered. With a partly sunny sky, the high will be close to 90 degrees.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: Global models continue to suggest an unusually dry air mass for summer will settle in here, meaning mostly sunny days, fair nights, slowly rising heat levels and lower humidity levels for the Fourth of July holiday weekend. Highs rise into the low 90s, and showers will be very hard to find statewide. A few showers could pop up Sunday afternoon as moisture levels begin to rise again, but they should be widely spaced.

NEXT WEEK: Moisture levels will continue to slowly rise, and the week will feature very routine summer weather — partly sunny days with scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be close to 90 degrees.

TROPICS: A frontal boundary is expected to stall and weaken off the southeast U.S. coast late this week. An area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S., over Florida or the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little.

Global models are not bullish on development, and the Natioanal Hurricane Center gives it only a 20% chance of becoming a depression or storm. Don’t let this affect a planned trip to the Gulf Coast; it is just something to watch for now.

The rest of the Atlantic basin remains quiet.

ON THIS DATE IN 2002: San Antonio, Texas, recorded 9.52 inches of rain to set a new record for its greatest rainfall for July.

ON THIS DATE IN 2024: Hurricane Beryl reached Category 5 strength over the Caribbean with sustained winds of 160 mph, after making landfall on the island of Carriacou, Grenada, as a high-end Category 4 hurricane, causing total devastation.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.