James Spann: Warm, dry afternoon for Alabama; severe storms possible Tuesday night

WARM AFTERNOON: Temperatures are mostly in the mid to upper 80s across Alabama this afternoon with a partly to mostly sunny sky. We expect only isolated showers tonight with a low between 68 and 73 degrees.

The day Tuesday will be partly sunny and very warm, with highs in the upper 80s. Any showers will remain isolated.

TUESDAY NIGHT: The Storm Prediction Center has defined an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for northwest Alabama; there is a slight risk (level 2) down to Greensboro, Calera and Heflin and a marginal risk (level 1) as far south as Thomasville, Prattville and Lafayette.

A line of severe thunderstorms will likely enter the northwest corner of the state around 5-6 p.m.; it will move through the northern half of the state Tuesday night. Here are the key messages:

• The primary threat will come from damaging winds, since high-resolution models suggest the storms will be linear. However, a few isolated tornadoes are certainly possible within the line as well. If any discrete storms form ahead of the line, the tornado risk will be higher.
• Large hail is also possible in a few spots within the line.
• The line of storms should reach Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Gadsden and Anniston around 10-11 p.m.
• The storms will likely weaken over central Alabama after midnight as the upper support moves away.

REST OF THE WEEK: A few lingering showers are possible over south Alabama early Wednesday, but most of the state will be dry with a high in the low 80s. Thursday’s weather will be similar — generally dry with a high at or just over 80 degrees. Friday will be a sunny and very pleasant day statewide; some of the cooler spots over north Alabama could reach the upper 40s early Friday morning. Highs will be in the 70s over the northern counties of the state, with low 80s to the south.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: South Alabama will be generally dry over the holiday weekend, but a few scattered showers will be possible over the northern two-thirds of the state Saturday and Sunday as moisture levels rise. Showers and storms are more likely Monday with the approach of a cold front.

ON THIS DATE IN 1915: A spring storm came to an end after producing widespread snow. Total snowfall from the storm included 17.6 inches in Scottsbluff, Nebraska, 8 inches at Cheyenne, Wyoming, 7 inches at Chadron and 3.9 inches in North Platte, Nebraska.

ON THIS DATE IN 1973: An F2 tornado chewed its way across northern Fort Payne, injuring 35 people. Other tornadoes touched down the same day in parts of Madison and Jackson counties.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.