James Spann: Windy, wet weather ahead for Alabama, with a few isolated tornadoes possible

RADAR CHECK: Rain now covers much of south Alabama as Francine nears landfall on the Louisiana coast, and rain will become widespread statewide tonight.

Francine has winds of 90 mph at midafternoon; the center is about 80 miles southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana. After landfall the cyclone will weaken rapidly as it moves northward up the I-55 corridor in Mississippi Thursday.

GRADIENT WIND: Winds could gust as high as 50-55 mph tonight along the Alabama Gulf Coast, where a tropical storm warning remains in effect. For inland Alabama, gusts to 35-40 mph are possible Thursday as the circulation of Francine moves northward through Mississippi. A wind advisory has been issued for much of the state.

RAIN: Amounts over Mobile and Baldwin counties will be 2-4 inches, with 1-3 inches for the rest of the state. Heavier totals will likely be over the western counties. A flash flood watch is in effect for Mobile, Baldwin and Washington counties in southwest Alabama.

TORNADOES: A few brief, isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out across the state; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms for southwest Alabama tonight. On Thursday, there is a slight risk for a broad zone from Birmingham to Montgomery to Dothan. The rest of the state is in a marginal risk (level 1).

The SPC has introduced a marginal risk of isolated tornadoes Friday over the eastern half of the state.

Tornadoes associated with tropical systems are usually low-topped and short-lived. This makes it very difficult to provide a warning with a long lead time, so be very weather aware through Friday and pay attention to warnings.

The weather will improve along the Gulf Coast during the day Thursday as Francine moves northward. However, a high rip-current danger will be in place across the central Gulf Coast through Friday.

THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: The remnant circulation of Francine will likely stall and dissipate northwest of Alabama, and this means some risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. This won’t be a continuous rain, and the sun will be out at times. Highs will be between 78 and 83 degrees for most places.

NEXT WEEK: Scattered showers remain possible Monday and Tuesday, but global models are now trended toward a drier forecast for the latter half of the week. Highs will be in the 80s.

TROPICS: Tropical Depression 7 has formed in the eastern Atlantic; the National Hurricane Center keeps the system below hurricane strength over the next seven days, and global models suggest it will ultimately turn north into the open Atlantic far from land.

ON THIS DATE IN 1961: Hurricane Carla made landfall on the northeast part of Matagorda Island, Texas, as a strong Category 4 storm.

ON THIS DATE IN 1992: Hurricane Iniki struck the island of Kaua’i with winds of 145 mph and a central pressure of 27.91 inches of mercury, making it a Category 4 hurricane. Iniki is the strongest hurricane to strike Hawaii in recent history.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.